The northern leg of the inaugural Nations Championship sees strugglers Italy face the ultimate test in world rugby when they host the IRB’s number one ranked team South Africa, who’re looking to maintain their perfect start to the tournament.
Match News and Current Form
Italy’s year tells a tale of two halves thus far, as going into the final round of the Six Nations Championship having beaten Scotland and England at home and losing away to Ireland and France had all the signs the Azzurri were continuing their growth on the biggest of stages. Since then, it has been nothing but negative headlines as they went on to lose their last Six Nations game to Wales (31-17) and first Nations Championship match to Japan (27-10) despite being betting favourites, while their campaign in this tournament just got worse and worse after 47-17 and 57-10 hammerings at the hands of New Zealand and Australia respectively on tour in July.
Gonzalo Quesada’s men are at the bottom of the Northern Hemisphere standings with a -94 point differential, and need to find something within themselves if they’re to avoid the wooden spoon come the conclusion of the pool stage. Perhaps home ground advantage against South Africa, Argentina, and Fiji in the coming weeks is their golden ticket, seeing as they’ve won four of their last five home matches (L1), which involves three wins over Tier 1 teams.
South Africa have had a successful 2026 thus far when it mattered, as they sit top of the Nations Championship Southern Hemisphere standings after comprehensive wins over England, Scotland, and Wales in their trio of matches earlier in the year. The Springboks then embarked on a hallmark ‘Greatest Rivalry’ series when they faced their fiercest competitors New Zealand in four test matches when, despite losing the first match, they went on to win the series 3-1.
Rassie Erasmus then took a battered and bruised team down under to face the Wallabies where the ended up on the wrong end of a 42-38 scoreline in one of the most chaotic Test matches in recent memory, but the fact they haven’t lost back-to-back matches since November 2022 shows they’re dangerous after defeat. Erasmus’ team selection here proves how seriously he wants to add the Nations Championship to South Africa’s two World Cups and two Rugby Championships in recent times, as he has named a team that features three players with over 100 caps, and four players with 50+ appearances to their name.
Head-to-Head History
The Springboks have faced Italy 18 times and won 17 of those matches, with their only defeat was in Florence in 2016, where Italy pipped the Boks by 20-18.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Italy have scored exactly one first-half try in six of their last seven games.
Italy have scored 19+ points in just one of their last eight matches.
South Africa have conceded 22 tries in their last five Tests.
South Africa have trailed at half-time just once in their last 13 matches.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Italy welcome back Ange Capuozzo to the starting XV, and he’ll be keen to make an immediate impact since his two tries against South Africa have both come in home matches. Springbok scrumhalf Morné van den Berg usually makes the most of his time on the field having scored seven tries in 11 tests thus far, with three of those coming in two matches against the Italians.
Italy are missing up 15 key players headlined by the likes of Tommaso Menoncello, Juan Ignacio Brex, Michele Lamaro and Sebastian Negri. South Africa have their fair share of absentees too, such as their most capped player Eben Etzebeth, Cheslin Kolbe, André Esterhuizen, and Handrè Pollard.
Click here to see the latest team selection news for the Nations Championship.
Betting Analysis
The Springboks managed to score 42+ points in each of their three Nations Championship games and did so once against the All Blacks too, meaning betting on South Africa to score over 45.5 points seems wise.
Author: Peter Stavrinou