Real Madrid v Marseille (16/09/2025)

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There’s no easing back into the UEFA Champions League (UCL) for 1992/93 European champions Marseille, who travel to Real Madrid on matchday one.

Match News and Current Form

Real Madrid had to battle to beat Real Sociedad 2-1 in La Liga on Saturday after going down to ten men in the first half, but that should stand them in good stead as they begin their bid to win a record-extending 16th European Cup/UEFA Champions League title. New manager Xabi Alonso has guided them to four wins from four games this term, an ideal start to the post-Carlo Ancelotti era, while they’ve also triumphed in six of their last eight UCL fixtures at the Bernabéu (L2). 

Marseille arrive off the back of a comfortable 4-0 win over Lorient in Ligue 1 on Friday, meaning they’ve had an extra day to prepare for their trip to Spain, but their campaign has been up and down so far, as they’ve now twice followed up 1-0 away defeats with big home victories in the league. That shaky travelling form will be a concern for Les Phocéens, who return to the UCL group/league phase for the first time since 2022/23 having won just one of their last 11 UCL proper away games (L10), while manager Roberto De Zerbi has never won a UCL fixture (D2, L4)!

Head-to-Head History

Madrid have won all four previous H2Hs - all in the group stage - while scoring at least twice on each occasion. Los Blancos have also never lost to a French side in a UCL/European Cup game at home (W11, D4).

Win Probability
Win ProbabilityOpta by StatsPerform

Hot Stats and Streaks

Each of Madrid’s last 11 UCL home games saw both teams score (W7, D2, L2).

Madrid scored an average of 2.5 goals per game across their UCL league-phase fixtures last term (W5, L3).

All four of Marseille’s games this term witnessed scoring after the 85th minute.

Three of Marseille’s last four UCL fixtures (including qualifiers) ended with a 2-1 scoreline.

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

After netting the winner against Sociedad, Madrid’s Arda Güler has three goal contributions (G2, A1) across his last three club appearances, while his last five club goals arrived between the 20th minute and half-time. Angel Gomes scored for Marseille against Rennes and has picked up bookings in his last two appearances.

Madrid were dealt a blow recently as Antonio Rüdiger is set for a significant period on the sidelines with a hamstring injury. Marseille may be unable to call on Amine Gouiri, who was replaced before half-time against Lorient following a blow to the head.

For all the latest team news, please check the Flashscore match centre.

Betting Analysis

A home win looks on the cards but backing Madrid to win while scoring at least three times is a more interesting bet.

Author: John Pennington

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