Why the Rangers shouldn't panic about Pavel Dorofeyev's slow start

The price was far from cheap. In exchange for the 25-year-old forward, Vegas received the 26th overall pick, the 92nd overall pick, and a 2028 first-round pick (top-10 protected).

It’s no surprise, then, that Rangers fans have high expectations for Dorofeyev.

First and foremost, however, they shouldn’t expect him to replace the production of Artemi Panarin, who was traded to Los Angeles in February. Panarin has been one of the NHL’s elite wingers for years, and Dorofeyev hasn’t reached that level - at least not yet.

Another important point is that $11 million per year doesn’t carry the same weight in today’s NHL as it did three and a half years ago, when superstar David Pastrnak signed a contract extension with the Bruins for a similar AAV.

Given the current landscape and the salary cap’s significant projected increases in the coming years, an $11 million cap hit puts a player in the low-end 1st line to high-end 2nd line range.

And that’s exactly the kind of production Rangers fans should expect from Dorofeyev.

Lack of production

At $11 million per year, Dorofeyev is the highest-paid player on the Rangers. He will very likely remain so until the summer of 2029, when Adam Fox’s contract expires.

So it makes sense that the Rangers expect the Russian forward to produce offensively. Two goals and three assists in 11 games simply are not enough. Moreover, the Rangers have scored five goals and allowed eight with Dorofeyev on the ice at five-on-five.

There was even a point when Dorofeyev was taken off the top PP unit. It didn’t last long, though, and he has since returned. Sullivan explained the decision by saying that the Russian forward needed to make better and more frequent line changes during power plays.

Dorofeyev currently ranks fourth among Rangers forwards in average ice time, playing 17:28 per game. And with the team off to a strong start (15 points in 11 games), there’s little reason to expect his role to shrink.

Numbers suggest things should get better

From an analytics standpoint, however, the situation isn’t particularly concerning for the Rangers - at least not yet. Advanced metrics suggest the Russian forward has been playing better than his production might indicate.

The same applies to his overall impact on team play. With Dorofeyev on the ice, the Rangers have been outplaying their opponents at five-on-five. His 61.1% expected goals share ranks second among all Rangers players.

So how can his on-ice goal differential still be a negative 5-8?

At five-on-five, the Rangers have converted just 6.9% of their shots with Dorofeyev on the ice. Meanwhile, their goalies have stopped only 85.7% of the opposition’s shots. After 11 games, Dorofeyev’s PDO stands at 92.7.

That’s an extreme outlier, and one that is generally unsustainable. His PDO should start trending upward sooner or later. Players typically hover around 100, while the very best teams and players can post figures around 102 over a given stretch.

That’s a massive difference.

Another indicator that things should improve soon is Dorofeyev’s individual shooting.

Over the past two seasons, he scored 35 and 37 goals, respectively. More importantly, he outperformed his individual expected goals in both campaigns - something that the NHL’s best finishers tend to do.

In the 2024-25 season, he generated 27.3 individual expected goals and scored 35 times, converting 13.8% of his shots. The following season, his individual expected goals rose to 33.1. He finished with 37 goals on a 16.1% shooting percentage.

This season? He has generated 5.8 individual expected goals but scored just twice. Pavel Dorofeyev has converted only 5.7% of his shots so far.

Another massive difference.

Patience has its limits

While advanced stats show that Dorofeyev has been unlucky so far, that doesn’t mean the fans and the organization will remain patient indefinitely. When you’re the highest-paid player on the team, actual results are needed - not just expected results.

The Russian forward clearly needs to break out of this slump as soon as possible. If he does, he could gradually return to the shooting efficiency he displayed in previous seasons.

He had a great opportunity to score yesterday against Anaheim, with an open net in front of him, but hit the post instead.

History suggests that if the 25-year-old forward continues to perform as he has been, the results will soon show up not only in his individual numbers but in the team’s results as well.

Numbers like a 61% expected goals share and a -3.8 goals-above-expected differential, especially for a player who has outperformed his individual expected goals in each of the previous three seasons, strongly suggest that positive regression is on the way.