Australian Open women's draw analysis: Sabalenka the favourite as Swiatek eyes history

Sabalenka arriving in Melbourne for the Australian Open
Sabalenka arriving in Melbourne for the Australian OpenJay Kogler / EPA / Profimedia

The Australian Open is just around the corner, and there are storylines galore in the women's draw in Melbourne. Iga Swiatek can complete the Career Grand Slam, Aryna Sabalenka is eyeing her third title in Melbourne, while Amanda Anisimova is looking to win her first major crown.

As a result, Flashscore takes a deep dive into the draw, analysing which players have been handed kind draws, and who have been given the toughest routes to the final. You can check out our analysis of the men's draw here.

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First quarter

Seeds: Aryna Sabalenka (1), Jasmine Paolini (7), Ekaterina Alexandrova (11), Clara Tauson (14), Victoria Mboko (17), Marta Kostyuk (20), Emma Raducanu (28), Iva Jovic (29)

With women's tennis so deep and blessed with so much quality and talent throughout the rankings, it is hard to say that a player has a 'straightforward' route at a Grand Slam. However, Sabalenka's quarter is one of the kinder ones at the Australian Open.

The world number one begins her quest to recapture the crown in Melbourne against Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah, and is likely to face Grand Slam finalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, former US Open champion Raducanu, and young star Mboko (based on seedings) before the quarter-finals. On paper, that looks tricky, but realistically, there should be nothing difficult about that run for the world's best player.

Paolini, meanwhile, has one win in her last six matches and faces a really awkward first-round encounter with Aliaksandra Sasnovich. She could then face Magdalena Frech, the super impressive 18-year-old Jovic, and then Alexandrova or Kostyuk.

Prediction: Sabalenka to beat Kostyuk in the quarter-finals

I anticipate a rematch between Sabalenka and Kostyuk following their Brisbane final. The latter has started the year in fine touch, and she could take out the likes of Paolini and Alexandrova to make the quarters. However, like in Brisbane, Sabalenka should be too good.

Sabalenka is looking to win a third Australian Open crown
Sabalenka is looking to win a third Australian Open crownMarcin Cholewinski / Zuma Press / Profimedia

Second quarter

Seeds: Coco Gauff (3), Mirra Andreeva (8), Elina Svitolina (12), Emma Navarro (15), Karolina Muchova (19), Diana Shnaider (23), Dayana Yastremska (26), Marketa Vondrousova (32)

This is an extremely hard quarter to analyse, largely due to the completely unpredictable nature of the top seed in the section, Gauff. You wouldn't be surprised if she won the whole thing, but you also wouldn't be surprised if she suffered an early exit.

The American faces Kamilla Rakhimova first up, potentially followed by Olga Danilovic or a standout clash with Venus Williams. Former Wimbledon champion and the inexplicable Vondrousova could await in the third round, before a match-up with fellow American Navarro.

For Andreeva, it won't be easy at all. She faces Donna Vekic in the first round, followed likely by Maria Sakkari. Yastremska is a potential big-hitting third-round opponent, before a really tough meeting with Svitolina - who started the season with a title in Auckland.

Prediction: Gauff to beat Svitolina in the quarter-finals

I anticipate that Gauff will battle her way through in typical fashion, showcasing her experience on the big stage despite not being at her best. A quarter-final with Svitolina would be tight, but I lean to the two-time Grand Slam champion.

Gauff is a two-time Grand Slam champion
Gauff is a two-time Grand Slam championMarcin Cholewinski/ZUMA Press Wire / Shutterstock Editorial / Profimedia

Third quarter

Seeds: Amanda Anisimova (4), Jessica Pegula (6), Madison Keys (9), Linda Noskova (13), Leylah Fernandez (22), Jelena Ostapenko (24), Paula Badosa (25), Sofia Kenin (27)

A quarter packed with top Americans, fourth seed Anisimova will be desperate to go one better after reaching the finals of the last two Grand Slams at Wimbledon and the US Open. 

She will be pleased with her draw too, as she starts against Simona Waltert, before likely meetings with Katerina Siniakova and Kenin. The fourth round could see her come up against her first major test, Noskova.

Pegula's route to the quarters is far more difficult. After an opening-round meeting with Anastasia Zakharova, she could then face challenging opposition from McCartney Kessler and Badosa. A heavyweight clash with defending champion Keys is on the cards in the fourth round.

Prediction: Anisimova to beat Pegula in the quarter-finals

Anisimova was playing some magnificent tennis in 2025, really establishing herself as one of the world's best players and a serious contender to win the Grand Slams. With her route to the quarter-finals considerably more straightforward than Pegula and Keys, that should play in her favour if she does meet one of those two, as she should be far fresher and stronger.

Anisimova is coming off the back of consecutive Grand Slam finals
Anisimova is coming off the back of consecutive Grand Slam finalsPhoto by GRAHAM DENHOLM / GETTY IMAGES ASIAPAC / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP

Fourth quarter

Seeds: Iga Swiatek (2), Elena Rybakina (5), Belinda Bencic (10), Naomi Osaka (16), Liudmila Samsonova (18), Elise Mertens (21), Maya Joint (30), Anna Kalinskaya (31)

This is a stacked section of the draw. Swiatek has a chance to complete the Career Grand Slam in Melbourne, but her route is seriously testing.

Coming off the back of consecutive losses at the United Cup, she will be pleased with the start to her tournament. She first takes on qualifier Yue Yuan, followed potentially by Marie Bouzkova. Kalinskaya could be a tricky opponent in the third round, but the real trouble starts in the fourth, with four-time Slam champion and two-time winner at the Australian Open, Osaka, lurking.

Rybakina, meanwhile, will be looking to pick up where she left off after her WTA Finals win at the end of last season. An opening round match with Kaja Juvan should be no problem, nor should a second-round meeting with Varvara Gracheva. Home favourite, Joint, could stand in her way after that, while a highly-anticipated fourth-round contest with the in-form Bencic is one of the clashes everyone is hoping for.

Prediction: Rybakina to beat Swiatek in the quarter-finals

A lot of this depends on how well Swiatek is playing, but given how vulnerable she has looked to start the season, Rybakina's clean striking and heavy-hitting game could really bother her, which is why I am leaning toward the Kazakh.

Rybakina ended 2025 with the WTA Finals title
Rybakina ended 2025 with the WTA Finals titlePhoto by KELLY DEFINA / GETTY IMAGES ASIAPAC / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP

Semi-final and final predictions

Semi-final 1: Amanda Anisimova beats Elena Rybakina

Semi-final 2: Coco Gauff beats Aryna Sabalenka

Final: Amanda Anisimova beats Coco Gauff

While my men's prediction was completely unsurprising and a bit boring, the women's one is anything but. Many expect Sabalenka to go on and win the title again, and while I probably do feel the same deep down, there is something about the match-up with Gauff that makes her head spin.

The head-to-head between the pair is locked at 6-6, and the last time they met in a Slam was that remarkable French Open final, where Gauff's relentless speed and retrieval skills drove Sabalenka insane, with the American going on to clinch her second Slam. That is why I am going to back Gauff in this semi-final.

The other last-four clash pits the big hitters against each other. Rybakina won their last meeting convincingly at the WTA Finals, but I anticipate a really tight match in Melbourne this time around.

I actually think the Australian Open winner will come from this semi-final, and the fact that Anisimova has come so close at the previous two Grand Slams will spur her on and get her over the line against Rybakina.

Anisimova was defeated in the Wimbledon final by Swiatek
Anisimova was defeated in the Wimbledon final by SwiatekMark Greenwood/IPS / Shutterstock Editorial / Profimedia

So in the end, it'll be third time lucky for Anisimova. After a pair of near-misses, she will finally become a Grand Slam champion and be able to manoeuvre the tenacity of Gauff in the final. It would be a wonderful story and cap off a stunning 12 months for her.

Follow the women's draw at the Australian Open with Flashscore