Why Man Utd target Carlos Baleba might be worth Brighton's massive valuation

Brighton's Carlos Baleba during the Premier League match against Fulham on August 16th, 2025
Brighton's Carlos Baleba during the Premier League match against Fulham on August 16th, 2025Liz Finlayson / Shutterstock Editorial / Profimedia
If there's one Premier League success story that almost defies logic, it's Brighton's incredible recruitment strategy.

The Seagulls' ability to buy players at a steal and then sell them on for huge sums is unsurpassed. 

Brighton's brilliant recruitment strategy

What's more, the club have still remained competitive despite losing players such as Moises Caicedo, Joao Pedro, Yves Bissouma, Marc Cucurella, Leandro Trossard, Alexis Mac Allister, Ben White and Robert Sanchez

The latest off the production line could be 21-year-old defensive midfield powerhouse, Carlos Baleba, although this summer's transfer window might just be that little bit too early for clubs to meet Brighton's soaring valuation.

While it's been widely reported that Manchester United are circling and the player himself is prepared to press for a move to Old Trafford, the Red Devils aren't interested in paying anywhere close to the £120 million fee it's believed the Seagulls want for a player they signed to replace Caicedo in 2023 for just £23.2 million from Lille.

It's as big a 'hands off' statement as is possible to make by Brighton, so the question to be asked is whether the player is worth such a spend...

What would Man Utd get for their money?

In terms of his tackling, a big part of a defensive midfielder's armoury, Baleba made 79 in last season's Premier League, winning 46 of them for a 58.2% success rate.

Casemiro, arguably one of the players Ruben Amorim would be looking to replace with Baleba, actually has a superior record in that regard, attempting 83 and winning 50 for a 60.2% completion.

For an ageing 33-year-old to be recording higher averages in one of the major facets of the game is alarming at first glance, but as other stats will show, there is more to the story than that.

Carlos Baleba Attacking Carries - Brighton and Hove Albion, Premier League 2024/25
Carlos Baleba Attacking Carries - Brighton and Hove Albion, Premier League 2024/25Opta by StatsPerform

Manuel Ugarte's 77 tackles attempted are slightly less than Baleba's, but winning 49 of them gives him an even more impressive 63.6% completion.

Therefore, on tackles alone, the Brighton man lags behind those players United already have on their books.

Manuel Ugarte Radar Graphic - Manchester United, Premier League 2024/25
Manuel Ugarte Radar Graphic - Manchester United, Premier League 2024/25Opta by StatsPerform

An area where Baleba has excelled, however, is with regard to the breaking up of play. His 197 possessions won in the English top-flight during 2023/24 easily trumped Casemiro's 103 and Ugarte's 122.

His mobility and anticipation are much better, too, with the United pair often looking static by comparison.

Passing-wise, Baleba's 87.9% accuracy came as a result of 1,143 successful passes from 1,300 attempted. 960 attempted from Casemiro and 770 completed is way down on his rival, as is his 80.2% accuracy.

Ugarte's 88.6% is the best of the trio, though it has to be factored in that he made the fewest total passes (897), completing 795.

Casemiro Touches for Manchester United - Premier League 2024/25
Casemiro Touches for Manchester United - Premier League 2024/25Opta by StatsPerform

Ugarte's discipline certainly needs looking at too, as his 11 yellow cards last season are almost as many as the other two across the last two campaigns combined - 15 for Baleba and 12 for Casemiro. 

Given that meant Amorim couldn't call on the Uruguayan for some potentially vital fixtures, this is another reason why the United manager could be considering his defensive midfield options.

415 ball carries across last season in the league from Baleba, of which 200 were progressive, indicate a desire from the Brighton man to drive the team forward from the central areas of the pitch. An area where he also won possession on no less than 107 occasions.

Plenty of room for development

Winning one-on-one duels in that pocket just in front of the back four is considered vital for a defensive midfielder, so the Brighton man's 359 attempted - significantly more than Casemiro (222) and Ugarte (277) - is worth studying in more detail.

199 won means he is successful in this particular metric 55.4% of the time. More than Ugarte's 52.7% but less than Casemiro's 63.5%. Again, here, the sample size should be viewed in a positive light for Baleba.

Carlos Baleba Passes - Brighton and Hove Albion, Premier League 2024/25
Carlos Baleba Passes - Brighton and Hove Albion, Premier League 2024/25Opta by Stats Perform

Not to mention the ages of all three players, too. Just 21, Baleba is already a monster in his position, and yet he is the youngest by three years. In a better team than Brighton, with the utmost respect to the Seagulls, the player's development could still be stratospheric.

One only needs to look at those players who have already left the AMEX Stadium and gone on to better things as an example of what the Cameroonian could achieve in the right set-up.

From a Manchester United perspective, it's blindingly obvious what Baleba's presence would do in terms of shoring up an area of the pitch that has been the Red Devils' Achilles Heel.

United back to square one?

It's all very well signing the likes of Benjamin Sesko and Matheus Cunha, but if no one can stop opposition attacks with aplomb, then Amorim is, unfortunately, going to be back at square one again pretty quickly.

Whether United can or will eventually pay close to Baleba's asking price is a moot point just now, but their answer will be known one way or another within a fortnight when the window slams shut.

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