Humbled Japan hoping to strain France's poor travelling record

Match News and Current Form

The joy of Japan winning their Nations Championship opener 27-10 against Italy, their second win in succession at the time, was short-lived as they were humbled 36-20 by the Irish last weekend. There were definitely positives to be taken for the Brave Blossoms, who led for much of the first-half before a poor second-half showing, which ultimately led to them losing five of their last six matches against Tier 1 nations. Currently ranked 11th in the IRB’s rankings, Japan have definitely lost ground on becoming the respected rugby nation they were thought to be projecting towards, and they hardly seem to outperform expectations these days since they’ve won just five of their last 33 games when starting as betting outsiders.

Coach Eddie Jones has made six changes to his side from last week, including changing the entire front-row as that is where he thinks the game's outcome will be decided. The incoming props are Keijiro Tamefusa and ​Sojiro Otsuka, joined by hooker Hayate Era, with another change amongst the forwards seeing looseforward Esei Haangana make his debut. In the backline, Samisoni Tua comes in at centre, while Kippei Ishida returns on the wing.

France turned all the promise they showed in their opening round 34-32 defeat to New Zealand into a maximum points haul last time out, outclassing Australia 42-26 in Brisbane despite trailing 21-12 at half-time. That was Les Bleus seventh win in their last nine matches (L2), and scoring 32+ points in each of those nine games shows they’re one of the best attacking units in world rugby at the moment. The Six Nations champions still have a fair bit to prove on their travels though, as losing five of their last seven road trips will no doubt have their travelling contingent a little nervous (W2).

Coach Fabien Galthié has once again tinkered with his starting XV, as he too replaced his whole front-row for this clash. Régis Montagne, Maxime Lamothe, and Jefferson Poirot all come in, and they’re joined by looseforward Alexandre Roumat as the only other change to the lineup from last week. The backline features some true star power with the likes of Romain Ntamack and Matthieu Jalibert occupying flyhalf and fullback respectively, while the team will be captained by scrumhalf Maxime Lucu.

Head-to-Head History

There’s been eight previous encounters between these sides, with France winning seven and the other being drawn.

Hot Stats and Streaks

Japan covered the main spread in 11 of their last 14 games.

Just one of Japan’s last seven matches saw 60+ points scored.

France have scored 32+ points in each of their last eight matches.

A backline player has scored the first try in 15 of France’s last 17 away matches.

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

Japan’s Takurō Matsunaga has been their stand out player so far in the Nations Championship, having scored 27 of their 47 points thus far. As for France, their debutant from the last game Aaron Grandidier-Nkakang stole the headlines with a brace, giving him all the confidence heading into his second test.

Japan’s Yuya Hirose was injured last weekend, as was France’s Oscar Jégou.

Click here to view the match squads and latest team news.

Betting Analysis

It’s expected to be extremely hot and humid in Tokyo for this match, meaning betting on under 65.5 total points may be smart.