Italy looking to complete the checklist with maiden win over All Blacks

Match News and Current Form

New Zealand returned to action for the first time since November last weekend as they opened the Nations Championship with a narrow but thrilling 34-32 win over France in Christchurch, a victory which made it six wins from the last seven (L1). Except for a short period early in the second half, the All Blacks led throughout and they began this second round of the tournament alongside South Africa with five points at the top of the Southern Hemisphere table.

After stealing one lineout and winning all of their scrums against France, coach Dave Rennie has seeked to balance continuity with opportunity and has made five changes to the XV who started last week. Into the team comes prop Tyrel Lomax, Tupou Vaa’i at lock, Wallace Sititi at blindside flanker, Leroy Carter on the wing and Billy Proctor at outside centre.

Italy had won their last three H2Hs against Japan and, despite enjoying the second best tackle success percentage of all teams across the opening round (84.7%), were beaten 27-10 in Tokyo last weekend. That defeat means that head coach Gonzalo Quesada’s side have now lost four of their last five games (W1), coming immediately after winning three of their previous four (L1).

The coach has opted to make three changes to his starters ahead of this match with veteran fullback Tomasso Allan and wing Louis Lynagh coming into the side alongside Exeter Chiefs flanker Ross Vintcent. Guilio Marini has been named as one of six forwards among the eight replacements and the 24 year old Benetton loose forward is expected to make his international debut at some stage during the fixture.

Head-to-Head History

This will be the 18th Test between the sides with New Zealand winning all 17 previous H2Hs and scoring 992 points in the process while Italy averaged just ten points per game across the meetings.

Hot Stats and Streaks

New Zealand have conceded exactly four tries in each of their last three games.

New Zealand have scored 33-34 points across each of their last two home matches.

Italy have failed to register a point in one half of each of their last three defeats.

Italy have been behind at half-time in each of their last four matches, after leading at the break in their previous three fixtures.

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

Will Jordan got two tries for New Zealand against France and has touched down in each of the last two H2Hs against Italy. Tommaso Menoncello equalled his calendar year best tally of three international tries with Italy’s solitary touchdown in Tokyo and also crossed the line in the last H2H with New Zealand.

Fehi Fineanganofo is out with a shoulder strain for New Zealand while Lorenzo Pani went off injured last weekend and has not recovered in time for this clash.

Betting Analysis

With Italy’s struggles before half time in recent games, backing New Zealand to cover a half-time handicap of -15.5 points looks like good value.

See the latest squads and team news for the match here.