Early on in England’s qualifying campaign, this author argued that we won’t know if Tuchel’s side are good enough to win the World Cup until it's too late, based on the lack of strong opposition they would face in the qualifiers plus their chosen friendlies (a loss to Senegal and a more recent win over Wales).
I stand by that point. We don’t know if they are good enough to win the World Cup, but they are certainly building a head of steam (having scored 15 unanswered goals in their last four matches).
However, that doesn’t mean we haven’t learnt anything about these Three Lions in the intervening period. In fact, we’ve learnt a lot about them. For example, we’ve learnt who Tuchel likes and trusts, and we’ve learnt a lot about some of the new faces involved in the set-up.
We know Elliot Anderson belongs at the level after impressing in midfield in all of England’s last three wins. We know Djed Spence is an able option at full-back, on either side. We know that Marcus Rashford is back in the frame for the left wing spot in the 4-2-3-1 formation that the manager prefers, but probably sitting behind Anthony Gordon in the pecking order as it stands.
Really, we know about two-thirds of the team that will start at the World Cup, and it’s uncontroversial to say that most of the squad picks itself. However, there are a few spots very much up for grabs. And it’s in those positions where the big talking points lie.
England have impressed without Jude
One of the more intensely debated issues has undoubtedly been why Jude Bellingham wasn’t picked for the most recent international break. Was he still not fully fit? Was he overlooked? Was it a kick up the backside from Tuchel due to his much-discussed ‘attitude’? Is he out of favour? Is it all just a storm in a teacup? Plenty of pundits weighed in.
And despite the fact there seems to be an endless supply of former players bemoaning the absence of him and others in the squad, we’ve learnt in the matches in October that England can turn out effective and winning performances without the likes of Bellingham, Phil Foden, Jack Grealish, Cole Palmer, Adam Wharton, Reece James, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Noni Madueke and even their captain Harry Kane (as evidenced specifically against Wales).
Have I forgotten someone? Probably. The talent pool is just that deep.
And while I don’t think we’ve learnt for sure if England are good enough to win the World Cup, or even go deep, we have learnt another thing. Aside from Kane (who really is a cut above), they don’t necessarily need most of those listed players to get to the required level to compete with the best sides in the world.
Some of those not recently involved will no doubt work their way back into contention - James and Madueke would likely have featured if fit, Palmer probably as well. But as for Bellingham, while he’s certainly good enough to be involved, he suddenly seems surplus to requirements. Let’s break that down a bit further.
Tactically, Bellingham just doesn't fit
Looking at England’s XI, you can comfortably say Declan Rice owns one of the two deeper midfield berths in the 4-2-3-1 system, while Bukayo Saka is first choice on the right. Gordon or Rashford, as suggested, seem to be favoured on the left. This leaves the other holding role and the 10 in behind Kane, when considering the midfield.
Starting with the holding role, the first thing to say is that’s just not Bellingham’s position. As his career has evolved, he’s seemingly drifted further left and forward of the classic central midfield role that he once looked destined to perfect, particularly at Dortmund.
In fact, at times in his Real Madrid career, specifically in the 2023/24 season (his most productive ever in terms of goals), he was even playing as an ersatz forward, a ‘false nine’ if you will. While other times, we've seen him on the left of a front two.
Considering how impressive Anderson has been, there’s an additional argument to make here - Bellingham isn’t one of the best two holding midfielders that the country possesses.
What's more, after Rice and Anderson, don’t forget Wharton and the players that Tuchel actually picked to back up those berths ahead of Bellingham, Jordan Henderson and Ruben Loftus-Cheek.
So he’s not a natural holding midfielder, and he’s maybe not in the best two either. But what about further forward, where he likes to play these days?
Well, there lies another problem (let’s call it a good problem for Tuchel), and that’s Morgan Rogers. The Aston Villa man has been outstanding in the role behind Kane in England's past three wins, and when he’s come off the pitch, Eberechi Eze is there to elegantly ghost in from the sidelines.
Not being a classic creator, and more of a marauding second striker when he does play in the hole, there is also the worry that Bellingham drifts left into the zone of the winger (as demonstrated in the above graphics) or crowds areas in which Kane likes to operate, an issue that has plagued England in the past.
Given Kane’s proclivities to drop into midfield pockets, a particular craft is needed to dovetail with him effectively. It's not that Bellingham can't do that job at all, more that Rogers and Eze strike as better suited (and currently favoured) to play that position. Palmer is another compelling option, and let's not forget Foden.
The point being, it's not clear that Bellingham is in England’s best two number 10s either.
The case for Bellingham on the left is even less compelling than in the middle of the pitch. Gordon has been superb, Rashford is rediscovering his old self in Barcelona, and even Grealish looks like a more likely, certainly a more natural, third option.
That’s not to mention that Eze can also fill in on the left, as can Madueke if he comes back into the fold.
So if you’re not picking Bellingham as a six or an eight, as a 10 or a winger… Well, then maybe you’re just not picking him at all. And that, perhaps, is precisely where Tuchel himself landed on the issue when he selected his last squad.
Granted, it was flagged by Tuchel that Bellingham’s lack of match fitness weighed into his selection decision. However, when you look at how his squad is being progressively pieced together, and more importantly, at how his side is now performing, it’s hard to imagine the resolute German crowbarring the Los Blancos boy back in just for the sake of it.
So, while the question of whether England are good enough to win the World Cup still feels very much a moot point, one thing is clearer: they don’t need Jude Bellingham to become so.
