Lithuania host Group G heavyweights Netherlands for the first time in this World Cup qualifier (WCQ), following their dramatic draw with Malta last time out.
Match News and Current Form
Lithuania just about maintained their outside chance of a top two finish in Group G in dramatic fashion, as a 96th-minute penalty spared their blushes and saw them claim a priceless draw against Malta on Thursday. That result still leaves them winless after four matches in this cycle, but with three serving as stalemates (L1), they enter this latest outing just four points adrift of second place. Less encouraging for the hosts is their home form, as they’ve won just one of their last 15 such competitive outings (D6, L8), and have only scored more than once in two of those fixtures.
Netherlands make the long trip east in search of a return to winning ways, as they were held 1-1 by Poland last time out in Rotterdam. That result still keeps them at the top of Group G after three matches on goal difference (W2, D1) and their position as leaders is likely to strengthen here, as the Oranje are unbeaten across their last 12 WCQ matches since March 2021 (W9, D3), scoring an average of 3.5 goals per fixture in that time.
Head-to-Head History
This will be the first-ever competitive H2H, though the Netherlands have won 40 of their 41 matches against sides ranked 100th or lower by FIFA at that time (L1).
Hot Stats and Streaks
Lithuania have never beaten a top-ten ranked side in 30 attempts (D3, L27).
Five of the last eight goals that Lithuania have conceded have come before the 25th minute.
Netherlands have won just one of their last five away competitive games (D3, L1).
Netherlands have scored 2+ goals in seven of their last nine WCQs.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Gvidas Gineitis netted Lithuania’s last-gasp penalty in midweek, taking his tally to three strikes across his last seven internationals. Netherlands star Denzel Dumfries also scored in their last match against Poland to extend his unbeaten run when scoring for his country to 11 goalscoring matches (W7, D4).
Lithuania will be without defender Edgaras Utkus here after he was sent off last time out, while Jan Paul van Hecke is a doubt for the Netherlands after picking up a knock in the draw with Poland.
Betting Analysis
With Netherlands keeping 35 clean sheets in 41 attempts when facing sides ranked 100th or lower by FIFA, backing them to keep a clean sheet and scoring over 4.5 goals could be a winnable market.
Author: Nathan Evans