Australia and Argentina both shot into surprise contention for the 2025 Rugby Championship when picking up victories last month and only one challenger will remain from these two after they go toe-to-toe down under twice.
Match News and Current Form
The Wallabies had surprised even many of their own supporters with their very competitive showing against the British & Irish Lions and turned up the dial even further when they ended a long-running Ellis Park drought with a Round 1 win over the Springboks. They couldn’t repeat it in Round 2 but still defeated expectations to a lesser extent by beating the +13.5 point handicap that they took to Cape Town. That was the fifth consecutive time, since they needed a late Harry Wilson try just to defeat the Tier 2 Fijians in Newcastle, that Australia covered the main spread, which hints at their pattern of overachievement this year.
There’s no disputing that head coach Joe Schmidt has helped the Wallabies take several leaps forward during his tenure and not even the most pessimistic supporter could forecast a repeat of their devastating 67-27 loss to Argentina last year that immediately followed a 20-19 victory. They’re now shaping up to end a three-game losing streak in Queensland when they head north to Townsville to play in what should be uncomfortably humid conditions for the visitors.
With three wins to their name from their last five Rugby Championship matches following a thrilling 29-23 victory over the All Blacks - the first time they ever defeated New Zealand on home soil - wooden spoon favourites Argentina have defeated each of the other three participants once each in the last 12 months. Their struggles have been with being able to maintain such winning form. They achieved one pair of back-to-back victories in the 2024 and 2022 seasons, but the former saw both games take place on home soil whilst the latter was the only time they had ever won two of their first three games of a Rugby Championship.
Winning in Australia is certainly not beyond them as outlined below, but their recent form of four losses from their last five games outside of Argentina is certainly not encouraging. Still, their boss Felipe Contepomi knows Joe Schmidt’s game inside out, having coached against or alongside him for the best part of 20 years, whilst the Pumas will be desperate to take sixth place from Australia in the World Rugby rankings by the end of the year to get seeded for the 2027 Rugby World Cup and avoid another top-six nation in their group.
Head-to-Head History
Not only were the Pumas victorious in three of the last four H2Hs played anywhere, Argentina’s last seven trips to Australia saw them come away with two wins and two draws, so they must always be considered a threat even on the road.
Queensland hasn’t been such a happy hunting ground for them, though: they lost eight of their last nine matches in the state.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The Wallabies won each of their last five tests as pre-match favourites.
Australia scored 20+ points in each of their last three home games against Argentina.
Both teams have recorded one victory each in 2025 when conceding the opening try.
Argentina scored more points in the second half of seven of their last nine matches.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Max Jorgensen is on a barnstorming three-game streak when it comes to scoring a try for the Wallabies so he represents value in try scoring markets here. Argentina number seven Juan Martín González recorded his first international try of 2025 last round and found the line in both games against Australia last year.
Tom Lynagh returns for Australia at flyhalf whilst Andrew Kellaway has been named at fullback in place of the injured Tom Wright. Pumas flyhalf Tomás Albornoz is out with a dislocated finger and has been replaced by Santiago Carreras. Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro retired from international rugby and Pedro Delgado has left the tournament to link up with English club Harlequins.
Betting Analysis
It’s a tough one to pick as neither team can be over nor underestimated. Argentina are averaging 54 total points per game in 2025 and Australia 48, so under 55.5 total points might be the best option here.
Author: Aaron Murphy