Ukraine are expected to be in a tight battle with Iceland for second place in World Cup qualification (WCQ) Group D and cannot afford to drop any points away to Azerbaijan if they are to realise their World Cup ambitions.
Match News and Current Form
Still reeling from their first relegation from UEFA Nations League C, Azerbaijan’s long-term decline took another leap in the wrong direction on Friday night. They suffered an embarrassing 5-0 drubbing at the hands of Iceland in their opening WCQ a day after Azerbaijan FA executive Jahangir Farajullayev slammed the “cowardly football” of winless manager Fernando Santos. It’s little wonder that Farajullayev summarily dismissed Santos two days later after he became the first Azerbaijani coach to oversee more than ten games without a single win (D2, L9), and with Azerbaijan having lost seven of their last eight WCQ matches on home soil (W1), a change of manager is more than understandable.
Ukraine will want to ensure the gap to the top-two doesn't stretch beyond three points here after they went down 2-0 to France on matchday one. Considering that Ukraine twice drew with France when finishing second in their 2022 WCQ group, they too took a backwards step on opening day. Ukraine certainly weren’t disgraced against the French, but given they’re now eight games without a clean sheet, they can seemingly ill afford to draw another scoring blank if they’re to have any chance of boosting their hopes of reaching a first World Cup finals since 2006.
Head-to-Head History
These two nations haven’t met since August 2006, when Ukraine were ranked 15th in the world and thrashed Azerbaijan 6-0 in a home friendly.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Ten of Azerbaijan’s last 11 losses were by a 2+ goal margin.
Azerbaijan haven’t scored the opening goal in any of their last 14 matches.
Eight of Ukraine’s last 11 matches saw both teams score.
Ukraine conceded at least one goal in six of their last eight victories.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
One of Azerbaijan’s two shots against Iceland came from Mahir Emreli, who would love to score given his country won on four of his six scoring appearances (L2). Ukraine will be hoping for a similar improvement from Oleksiy Gutsulyak, who won the two internationals in which he scored this year (v New Zealand and Belgium).
Both teams appear to have got through their previous matches unscathed with no new injuries.
For all the latest team news, please check the Flashscore match centre.
Betting Analysis
With Azerbaijan’s attacking deficiencies in mind, Ukraine winning by 2+ goals appears to be a worthwhile investment.
Author: Aaron Murphy