Ecuador have the chance to finish second in the CONMEBOL FIFA World Cup qualifying (WCQ) table if they can conclude their campaign with a win over Argentina - who are guaranteed to come top - on the final matchday.
Match News and Current Form
Ecuador’s 0-0 draw at Paraguay last week was inconsequential as they had already sealed their fifth World Cup finals appearance, but head coach Sebastián Beccacece will be concerned that La Tri have now failed to score in four consecutive games (D4). Their lack of potency has been a constant issue in this WCQ campaign, with only the two eliminated sides in South America having netted fewer goals than Ecuador (13). Being at home seems to bring the best out of Ecuador though, as they are unbeaten in their last 14 such World Cup qualifiers (W8, D6).
In what could have been Lionel Messi’s last competitive home match, Argentina trumped Venezuela 3-0, further boosting their impressive scoring record during this WCQ cycle (G31). La Albiceleste have won 12 games in the process, with 11 of those accompanied by a clean sheet. Their last two WCQ away trips have also ended in 1-0 victories, but having failed to win the three such encounters before that (D1, L2), Argentina have shown that being on the road has not always worked to their advantage in their successful attempt to reach North America next summer.
Head-to-Head History
Argentina have not lost any of their last eight meetings between the sides (W7, D1). Ecuador have remained extremely competitive at home however, losing only three of those WCQ H2Hs (W3, D2).
Hot Stats and Streaks
Six of Ecuador’s last nine WCQs have ended goalless.
In five of Ecuador’s last seven WCQ home games, under 1.5 goals have been scored.
Argentina have netted 2+ goals in just two of their last seven competitive matches.
Five of the last six results in Argentina’s away qualifiers have been by a single-goal margin.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Gonzalo Plata could take time to get involved for Ecuador, as six of his eight international goals have come after the 70th minute. Looking for a similar late impact could be Lautaro Martínez, who has seen six of his last ten goals for his country come after the hour mark, including Argentina’s second in their latest win over Venezuela.
Alan Franco is available after a one-match ban, while Ecuador are also likely to welcome back Moisés Caicedo. For Argentina, Lionel Messi has been given permission to skip the game, while Cristian Romero is suspended and Alexis Mac Allister is set to be available after not being risked against Venezuela.
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Betting Analysis
With two strong defences on show, goals could be at a premium, so under 1.5 goals may prove to be a good pick.
Author: Sridhar Bhamidi