With all four teams winning and losing in the opening two rounds, New Zealand hold the slightest of edges at the top of the standings thanks to bonus points heading into Round Three of the 2025 Rugby Championship, with South Africa looking to leapfrog them by ending their fairytale run at Eden Park!
Match News and Current Form
New Zealand, winners of 20 of the 29 editions of the Tri-Nations/Rugby Championship, got their 2025 campaign off the best of starts with a 41-24 win over Argentina, before the tables were turned a week later when they went down 29-23. The All Blacks could lay down a huge marker with a win over their oldest rivals here, and no matter their form at the time, the power of Eden Park has stood the test of time with New Zealand last losing a game here back in 1994, with a total of 59 test matches without defeat since then (W57, D2).
Coach Scott Robertson has had to ebb and flow between youth and experience in his team selection, with familiar faces such as captain Scott Barrett, centurions Codie Taylor and Beauden Barrett, Rieko Ioane, Jordie Barrett and the man set to make his 100th test appearance Ardie Savea all in the starting XV. There are also starts for the likes of loose forwards Simon Parker and Wallace Sititi, and backline players Billy Proctor and Emoni Narawa, who between the four of them share just 21 caps, while there is also a potential debutant on the bench in Kyle Preston.
For the Springboks, they bounced back from their opening round 38-22 defeat to Australia, to get one over on the Wallabies the second time round with a 30-22 win. The defending Rugby Championship holders claimed their title last year largely off the back of beating New Zealand in both tournament encounters, and they’ll be believing at least one of these next two games is winnable, considering they last lost consecutive test matches back in November 2022.
Rassie Erasmus has stuck with his tried and tested team, making just four changes from the side that beat Australia last time out. Centre Jesse Kriel retains the captaincy despite the return of Siya Kolisi, who is joined in the forward pack by the returns of South Africa’s most experienced player, Eben Etzebeth, and heartbeat of the team in flank Pieter-Steph du Toit. One change to the backline sees veteran Willie le Roux run out for his 101st cap.
Head-to-Head History
The All Blacks have been victorious in nine of the last 11 H2Hs they’ve hosted (D1, L1), but things have not gone their way overall lately, with South Africa having won the last four encounters between these two great nations, only once before having a more dominant run against the All Blacks (six from 1937-1949).
Hot Stats and Streaks
A backline player has scored the first try in all of New Zealand’s last four matches.
The All Blacks have kept the Springboks to less than 20 points in ten of the last 11 tests played in New Zealand.
South Africa scored most of their points in the first half of nine of their last 11 games.
South Africa have won 14 of their last 16 test matches on foreign soil (L2), conceding less than 30 points on each occasion.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
There will be an enticing battle between the two teams’ hookers, with Codie Taylor looking to get the upper hand since he scored in his last home test against France in July, and dotted down against South Africa in the Rugby Championship last year, while his opposite number Malcolm Marx loves facing the All Blacks with three tries in his last four tests against them.
The All Blacks have had to endure an injury crisis at scrumhalf, with Cortez Ratima, Cam Roigard and Noah Hotham all sidelined, while the Springboks are enduring the same on the wing with both Kurt-Lee Arendse and Edwill van der Merwe being left at home after picking up injuries, whilst Jasper Wiese serves the last game of his suspension.
Betting Analysis
The bookies have the home side as slight favourites and that’s hard to deny given the destination, but the Springbok team looks formidable, and considering the last three tests have been decided by margins of one, four and six points respectively, betting either team to win by less than 7.5 points seems a great shout.
Author: Peter Stavrinou