Poland and Finland, locked together on seven points at the halfway stage in Group G, meet in Chorzów on Sunday evening in a crucial FIFA World Cup qualifier (WCQ).
Match News and Current Form
Poland’s momentum in this WCQ cycle has stalled somewhat, following up successive wins to open the campaign by dropping points in their last two matches (D1, L1). They can certainly take great heart from rescuing a 1-1 draw against group favourites the Netherlands on Thursday in Jan Urban’s first game as manager, meaning only goal difference separates them from top spot. Having played a game more than the leaders and with just one automatic qualification place up for grabs, Poland can’t afford a slip-up here if they’re to reach a third successive World Cup finals.
Finland weren’t in competitive action on Thursday, instead losing 1-0 to Norway in a friendly. While they failed to build momentum from that contest, Jacob Friis’ men will look to move on quickly as they aim to qualify for the World Cup for the first time ever. This looks a tough fixture in that pursuit as Finland have won just once on their travels since the start of 2024 (D2, L6). That sole success came against Malta in their WCQ opener, and that result continued an encouraging trend for the Eagle-owls, who’ve been beaten in just one of their last eight WCQ away games (W4, D3).
Head-to-Head History
Poland have lost just one of the last six H2Hs (W3, D2), but that did come in the reverse fixture in June (2-1). Backing that up here looks tricky as Finland have lost their last two away H2Hs, conceding five goals each time.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Poland have won their last three home matches without conceding a single goal.
Poland have scored exactly once after half-time in each of their last six home games.
Finland have kept just one clean sheet in their last 11 away matches.
Finland have had five or fewer corners in each of their last 13 games.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Matty Cash got Poland’s equaliser against the Netherlands to make it two goals from his last three international games, opening the scoring for his side on both occasions. Benjamin Källman has already scored three times domestically this season, while he netted Finland’s winner in June’s H2H win.
Poland’s Przemysław Wiśniewski was forced off through injury on Thursday, but Finland reported no new concerns.
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Betting Analysis
Given that neither of these sides have been at their best going forward of late, backing under 2.5 goals could produce value.
Author: Tom Penn