Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have turned every tournament they enter into a two-man show, with the rest of the field often reduced to supporting roles. Much like the Big Three era, which sparked debates about whether such dominance made the sport too predictable, their rivalry is shaping the same narrative. They have met in the final of each of the last four events they both contested, and the streak now extends to the US Open. This marks the first time in the Open Era that the same two players will contest the final of three Grand Slams in a single season.
Their rivalry, long regarded as the most thrilling matchup on tour and consistently played at a higher level than almost any other, took on extra spice at Wimbledon. There, Jannik Sinner finally snapped his frustrating losing streak against Carlos Alcaraz with a four-set win, ending the Spaniard’s two-year reign at the tournament. That result sparked intrigue about where this rivalry was headed, but their subsequent clash in the Cincinnati Masters final offered little clarity, as Sinner was unwell and retired in the opening set.
All eyes now turn to the US Open for answers. While Sinner and Alcaraz are almost certain to face off several more times this season, this clash carries special weight. A victory for Sinner would cement his Grand Slam dominance in 2025 with a 3–1 edge, while Alcaraz can even the score at 2–2, just as they ended last year, keeping their rivalry perfectly balanced. Adding to the stakes, the winner will also rise to world No. 1 next week.
Jannik Sinner’s shaky fitness record, which has only gradually improved over the past two years, means any physical issue must be treated with caution. That makes the medical timeout he required for an abdominal problem during his four-set semifinal win over Felix Auger-Aliassime a worrying sign ahead of the final, where he will likely be pushed to four or five sets.
That said, challenges are nothing new to Sinner. He has faced obstacles at every Slam this year, from entering the Australian Open under the cloud of a potential suspension, to returning from a three-month ban with limited match time at Roland Garros, to bouncing back from the disappointment of losing the French Open final and then triumphing at Wimbledon. On top of that, there have been disruptions within his team. Yet he has handled it all admirably, winning two of the three previous majors and coming agonizingly close at the French Open as well.
The Italian’s remarkable consistency in recent times has reached genuine Big Three levels, with some of his numbers and achievements during this run nothing short of staggering. This will be his fifth consecutive Grand Slam final, making him the only player outside the Big Three to achieve that feat. He also joins the elite company of Rod Laver and the Big Three as the only men to reach all four Slam finals in a single season, and he is the youngest ever to do so.
Sinner has been a particularly dominant force on hard courts. He is currently on a 27-match winning streak in hard court Slams, a run that ties him with 24-time major champion Novak Djokovic and trails only Roger Federer’s record of 40. On Sunday, he will contest his eighth consecutive hard court final, a streak that began in August 2024.
Carlos Alcaraz had scores to settle with Novak Djokovic after painful back-to-back defeats to the Serbian at the Paris Olympics last year and the Australian Open earlier this season. He delivered in style, controlling their semifinal and cruising to a commanding 6-4, 7-6, 6-2 victory. With that performance, he became the first player since Roger Federer at the 2009 US Open to beat Djokovic in a hard court Slam semifinal without dropping a set.
The Spaniard’s young career has already been filled with record-breaking achievements, but this US Open feels like the start of a new chapter. He has looked composed, focused, and relentless throughout the tournament, a clear evolution from the earlier version of himself that sometimes wavered in matches and lacked the ruthless edge of the game’s elites. Alcaraz has yet to drop a set in this campaign and is aiming to become the first player ever to win the US Open without losing one. The last to come close was Roger Federer (#2) in 2015, when he reached the final without dropping a set but fell to Novak Djokovic (#1) in the title match.
This dominant run to the US Open final further strengthens Alcaraz’s credentials as a true all-court player. He has now reached multiple Slam finals on all three surfaces, and with a win on Sunday, he would hold multiple titles across each of them. His only previous hard court Slam victory also came in New York in 2022, a final that carries echoes of this occasion, as the winner was guaranteed to become world No. 1 the next day. Alcaraz seized that moment by defeating Casper Ruud, and now he has the chance to do it again.
Head-to-head: Carlos Alcaraz leads 10-6 overall, including exhibitions (3-2 in Grand Slams and 4-3 in finals). Jannik Sinner (4-1 in Slam finals) benefited from the more favorable draw but could not make full use of it. By contrast, Alcaraz (5-1 in Slam finals) comes in fitter, more confident, and carrying stronger momentum despite being placed in the same half as former champion Daniil Medvedev and local favorite Ben Shelton, and then having to face three-time former champion Novak Djokovic in the semifinals.
In this context, given his proven edge in long, demanding battles, Alcaraz will fancy his chances again in this matchup. However, that advantage could be neutralized if the forecasted rain in New York pushes the final indoors. In that scenario, Sinner’s chances rise significantly, as he is far superior in indoor conditions and might even have a chance to avoid a deciding set, which is exactly what he needs, as the shorter the match, the brighter his chances.